The Ebb and Flow of Crypto

Cycles are patterns which repeat over time.

Bitcoin Leads the Charge:

Hopefully you have been profiting from the recent upward movement! Congratulations and I hope you are enjoying the profits. From a technical macro perspective, we are seeing significant bullish confluence. I've discussed that viewpoint in previous blog posts - check it out! Contrasting, from the fundamental side, I have never been more bullish on Crypto/Bitcoin. Hyperinflation is here. Halving was in May. Government censorship is here. To me, it feels like this is nearing the final act in the play where the protagonist finally has their moment to shine. Blockchain & Bitcoin solve real problems. These problems might not be the most prevalent now, but they will become an issue soon.

In the past three weeks we have seen significant consistent buy volume on Bitcoin. I wanted to talk about some of the trends I've noticed recently in the interaction between large cap coins like Bitcoin and smaller cap alts. I want to contextualize this compared to my experience in the market years ago. I hope you enjoy!

In less than three weeks time, dating to July 21st, we have seen ~27% growth on Bitcoin. This jump from 9100 to highs of 12.2k happened quick, and caught a lot of people off guard! Many people were expecting a bearish breakdown from the 9k consolidation, but the bulls broke through resistance after resistance
These moves generally happen in repeating patterns which I refer to impulse/break out, followed by consolidation/continuation pattern. Lets dive into the micro of recent price action! 

Hindsight is 20/20, but the principle is relatively simple.. Identify the trading zones for supply/demand, recognize downtrend connecting price structure of higher lows, and watch for the breakout above previous and out of the consolidation.

BTC moves an inch, ETH moves a mile!

This concept is the sole reason so many noobs get trapped by alt coins! Higher reward always comes at a higher risk. It is impossible to separate the two within the context of investing. Lets compare the relative growth of ETH and quickly discuss why it is one of our favorite holds right now.

ETH USDT volatility (orange) is slightly greater than 2x of that in Bitcoin. This is to be expected with lower market cap investment options. Within the context of ETH 2.0 (staking update) around the corner, and ERC-20 being the foundation of many projects, is there any reason to be bearish on ETH?

How About BTC pairs?

This is the next talking point I wanted to discuss! The Ebb and Flow from BTC to alts, and from alts to BTC. Lets illustrate this with a chart comparing the % gain of BTCUSD to ETH, XRP, LTC measured in BTC..

A)  Represents a time when Bitcoin jumped, so people sold out of alts and into Bitcoin for upside exposure via BTC and alts remained relatively stagnant waiting.

B) Shows a "flash crash" where excess sell volume suddenly enters the market. During this time, alt coins did well because value flowed out of Bitcoin and into the smaller alt projects.

C) Is an example of a Bitcoin/USD consolidation where the value flows out and into the alt coins. During this time, the alt/BTC ratio increases as the market speculates in alts because of the relative stagnancy of Bitcoin.

This is just the price action from the recent weeks, but this trend does have validity when reflecting back! There is an ebb and flow to the market. If you can tune into the frequency, you can make millions.

Another Interesting Chart:

Bitcoin dominance is an interesting data set which shows the % composition of total Crypto market cap which is Bitcoin. The higher the %, the more "BTC dominated" the market is, and you can expect BTC/USD to rise while alt/BTC pairs to falter. During periods where the % is lower, this is considered an alt friendly market for inverse of the reasons stated above.This chart paints a very bullish picture. If the TA holds correct then we would see an increase in BTC dominance. This would occur via a large push to the upside, volume flooding in from periphery, and the % dominance of BTC grows. This facilitates outward flow and the trip to the moon resumes.

What is the next step here?

We're making higher highs and higher lows. Stay patient and buy supports while selling some at resistances. Personally, I think this is a game of accumulation.

Right now I am holding more than I am trading because I think that there are many quality "safe" projects which I comfortably keep on my ledger. Here are my long term holds (in Defi accounts/staked wherever possible):

    • Bitcoin
    • Ethereum
    • Chainlink
    • Horizen
    • Ripple
    • Binance Coin

In the same note, there have been some quality short term setups on alt coins recently. I'll list some of the ones on my short list because of their recent relative strength, volatility, and market structure:

      • ETH/USDT
      • LINK/USDT
      • XTZ/USDT
      • VET/USDT/BTC
      • ADA/USDT/BTC
      • BAND/BTC

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